VOL.69/2024.04

 

“Trend Forecasters” Dominate Bookstores in Korea

 

2022.12.05

 

When the new year is just around the corner, something unique happens in bookstores in Korea – they all put out various “trend books” that provide predictions for the new year on the most conspicuous shelves they have. The consumers who are curious about what will happen in the new year – or even tomorrow – all have their eyes focused on those books. This attention pushes “trend books” up the list of best-selling books. For example, when you search “trend” on any online bookstore you can find, you will get roughly 1,200 books. And even if you cut it down to “New Year,” there are about 800 books in the fields ranging from business, social sciences, humanities, and self-help. So, what implication is behind such an end-of-year trend, or what is the hidden secret?

 

Books about the Trends of the New Year are generally published from October

 

So, these trend-forecasting books – hereafter “trend books” - have become a genre in Korea, being some of the hottest books to find at the end of the year. Interestingly, these books, published mainly in early December about 5-6 years ago, began to appear earlier. Now you can see them appearing in online and offline bookstores beginning in early October. So, to exaggerate a little, these trend books offer 10 months worth of forecasts, because the next generation will come out in October again. Who knows – they may even begin publication around Thanksgiving in the near future!

 

 

The series at the forefront of this “trend book frenzy” is Trend Korea (Miraebook). The first volume of the series was published in mid-December 2008, but the following year, the publication period moved forward. Trend Korea 2010 was published in early December, and from Trend Korea 2011 to Trend Korea 2018, they were released in late November or early December. But, it didn’t stop there. Trend Korea 2019 and Trend Korea 2020 were published in late October, with Trend Korea 2021 coming in mid-October. Last year’s Trend Korea 2022 and this year’s Trend Korea 2023 went one step further as they became available in early October.
Another key trend forecaster, the Life Trend (Bookie) series, is no exception. Its first volume, Life Trend 2013, was released in mid-December 2012, but it changed the publication date for the next volume, Life Trend 2014, to November. Life Trend 2019 and Life Trend 2020 were published at the end of October, and from Life Trend 2021, the publisher officially set the publication date as early October.

 

 

Now, there’s a simple reason for this “earlier-than-last-year” phenomenon of trend books. They want to dominate the market. It is not simply a matter of dominating the shelves of offline bookstores or the front page of online bookstores. It is about determining the “trend.” By giving a particular name to a certain trend, the publishers acquire some kind of exclusive right to be the first – or only – forecaster of it. And as some of the keywords mentioned in such a trend are spread across all sorts of media, including TV, newspapers (though they are regarded as outdated marketing sources these days), and Social Media (this channel has become the mainstream), the book sells more copies. So, the reason why various trend forecasters are published in the market one after another in early October, too early for the end-of-the-year atmosphere, has become a trend itself targeting to be the first mover in the market.

 

Trend books Broaden their Scope to Real Estate and Education

 

In the early days of trend books, they mostly analyzed social phenomena and social trends. But, they advanced and expanded the scope to include different genres with public interest. While the Trend Korea and Life Trend series are representative trend books that analyze social phenomenons and consumer sentiment, books these days have begun to cover all aspects of society such as generation, education, real estate, money, media, IT, blockchain, the metaverse, employment, and aging.
The best example of trend books about real estate, the biggest interest of some Koreans, is the Real Estate Trend (Wise Map). Beginning with its first volume, Real Estate Trend 2022, published early last November, Real Estate Trend 2023 was released this year. And, as the real estate market has been full of ups and downs this year in Korea, it seems to have been quite popular in the business genre. Another trend book of its kind, which was published earlier than this series, is Real Estate Trend in Korea 2016, published by the Real Estate Team of Industry Division 1 of The Chosun Ilbo in December 2015. Written by a team of 20-26 real estate experts, the series released new volumes that predict real estate trends in 2017, 2018, and 2020. The fun fact is that books predicting the real estate market are not concentrated on a particular season, but are published all year round as if it is a particular interest of Korean people.

 

 

Meanwhile, “education” is also the next significant interest of Koreans. Trend books related to education are published throughout the year. For example, Education Trend in Korea 2023 (Eduniety), published in late October this year following Education Trend in Korea 2022 released in mid-November last year, chose “20 Keywords Leading Korean Education” as its sub-title. While the book is relatively simple in context, talking about the current educational environment in Korea, new year tasks for schools, and prospects, it is high in quality in that it offers a comprehensive evaluation of the reality of education in Korea, not just centering on college entrance.
Also, reflecting how Korean society is interested in employment, more trend books about this topic are steadily released every year. For example, the sub-title of Job Trend 2021 (Vision Korea) published in mid-November in 2020 was “How COVID-19 Changed People Work,” and that of Job Trend 2022 published in mid-November last year was “How the MZ Generation is Changing the Employment Culture.” In addition, this year’s recently published Job Trend 2023 has put “Recruiting Experience Changes How People Work.” While the main topic revolves around “recruitment,” it pinpoints its relevance with various social phenomenons, including the pandemic, MZ generation, work-cation (a newly coined word combining work and vacation), and the metaverse.
One thing to note here is that even though the “trend books” discuss trends about diverse social issues, they are inevitably the same in that they provide analysis of social phenomena that the trends themselves have given impetus to. Trend books face undeniable limitations as they just put together puzzles – topics like consumption, education, and real estate – in the frame called “trends.”

 

“Wording” Decides the Fate of Trend books

 

Most readers tend to give complete trust to words like “trend” and “prediction” as well as the number of the new year, like 2023. They anticipate and fantasize that such things are really going to happen in the new year. But, to be honest, these “trend books” are not outlooks for the new year. Instead, they are a multi-angle analysis of the world we are living in, but with a good-looking name tag. The best example is the “Redistribution of the Average,” the first trend for 2023 suggested by Trend Korea 2023.
In the past, people often thought that they belonged to the “middle class.” Many lived an average life, neither particularly good nor particularly bad. But, entering the 21st century, the term “middle class” has become a dead word. Polarization is deepening, where the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer. It’s not just about income. What about politics? It seems like there are only the far rights or the far lefts. People at demonstrations are polarized, too, let alone politicians. No voice is heard from the middle. Instead, people deliver words of the far right or far left through “rumors” on all Social Media platforms. Moderation and practicality? These words seem to have vanished from politics.
What about housing issues? Apartment prices, which rose steeply last year, are now sinking. While the young generation is desperate to find affordable houses, some people already have tens of houses. It’s what society is like these days, no matter what area it may be. There’s no such thing as “average.” But, let’s give it a second thought. Doesn’t “the missing average” sound similar to an expression that we have been using for a long time? Yes, it is another word for “polarization,” as I have mentioned earlier.
The book Life Trend 2023 picked “conspicuous non-consumption” as the new year’s trend, which can be represented by non-consumption and non-spending. It is obvious that people spend less as the economy is not doing very well. But, the younger generation is using this situation as one of the tools to “show off” themselves. For example, some people do the so-called “vegan reset challenge,” where they have a vegan diet for a month in January, and there are more people participating in the “meat-less Monday” campaign, where they don’t eat meat on Mondays. Elevating the act of spending less or not spending at all to a type of social campaign might be the young generation’s wise choice. Meanwhile, the significant growth of the secondhand and refurbished markets is partially supported by the young generation’s non-consumption and non-spending. These phenomena have been spreading for the past few years, and it is clear that they will extend to become a more significant trend in 2023.

 

 

After all, the key for trend books to succeed converges to “wording.” A thorough analysis of social phenomena and words or expressions that can stimulate the public’s curiosity is the critical skill determining whether a trend book will succeed. Still, trend books play an essential role in our society. Through social analysis and appropriate wording, trend books significantly impact society’s “agenda setting.” Moreover, readers think and act based on the keywords presented in trend books to a certain extent. In that aspect, trend books have great social responsibility. This is why I don’t welcome lightly-written trend books about various topics pouring into the market.
Not everything in the West is good, but trend books in many Western countries usually give outlooks in a 10-year cycle. They think short-term predictions are mere analyses of current phenomena, and thus do not have practical forecasts. Of course, it might be because giving long-term outlooks lets you free from responsibilities. And, of course, again, I understand why Korea tends to focus on near-future trends. Korea will be the most dynamic country in the world. In fact, Korea is almost the only country in the world where all areas of society, such as politics, economy, society, and culture, are in such severe ups and downs. In this respect, Koreans paying particular attention to the New Year trend is a good representation of Korea itself, where every Tom, Dick, and Harry lives on unpredictable ground.
Trend books will return at the end of – or October – every year. So I put down the pen, hoping that the books created after a year of hard work will be valuable guides for readers to open a new world.

 

 

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Written by Jang Dong-Seok (Director of the Bookcity Culture Foundation)